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※ This post is a personal weekly study record maintained for the ongoing, consistent study of financial markets. It does not, in any way, constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial instrument.
I did not participate in this trade. I still believe there are many opportunities for us.
I approached the analysis conservatively from a financial perspective.
By next week, SPCX might surpass SOXL to become the stock most purchased by South Koreans during the week.
SPCX
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. / SpaceX
$161.00 ▲ +$26.00 +19.3% IPO Day 1 Close · June 12, 2026
⚡ HOLD — Staged Entry Multi-source confirmed
VIX 19.0
S&P 500 7,419
US 10Y Yield 4.69%
Market Regime NEUTRAL
Free Float 4%
01 IPO Key Metrics
IPO Price
$135
Largest IPO ever
Raised $75 billion
Raised $75 billion
Day 1 Close
$161
+19.3% vs IPO
Intraday high $176.52
Intraday high $176.52
Market Cap
$2.0T+
At close (USD)
$1.75T at IPO price
$1.75T at IPO price
Free Float
4%
Ultra-thin float
Extreme volatility risk
Extreme volatility risk
MSCI Inclusion
D+1
From June 13, 2026
Structural index demand
Structural index demand
Consensus Target
$139
−13% vs current
High $190 / Low $63
High $190 / Low $63
02 Business Segment Financials — FY 2025 (S-1 Filing)
🛰 Connectivity (Starlink)
Revenue $11.39B · EBITDA Margin 63%
+$4.42B Operating Income
Dominant first-mover position in LEO satellite internet. Subscribers grew from 4.5M to 10.3M (+128% YoY). The sole profit-generating segment — entirely subsidizes the rest of the business. Reusable launch cost advantage is the foundational competitive moat.
PROFITABLE ✓
🚀 Launch (Rocket Services)
Solid unit economics · Starship expansion underway
✓ Robust cost structure
Reusable rocket technology lead remains intact. Falcon 9's cumulative launch reliability, diversified government and commercial customer base. Starship success could revolutionize per-launch cost structure and reinforce the long-term moat.
PROFITABLE ✓
🤖 Artificial Intelligence (xAI)
Operating Loss −$6.36B (2025) · Margins deteriorating
−$6.36B Operating Loss
The only loss-making segment with the lowest gross margin. Intense competition from major LLMs, rising cost of AI product delivery. Largest upside potential but weakest unit economics. Can fully offset all Starlink profits — the #1 risk factor.
LOSS-MAKING ✗
03 Multi-Perspective Valuation Analysis
Perspective A
Quantitative
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Intrinsic Value Est.$1.25–1.35T
IPO Valuation$1.77–1.80T
Premium vs IV+55–70% overvalued
Per-Share IV~$95–103
Key wildcardxAI loss structure
"Buyers at IPO price are betting on perfect execution across every dimension — historically rare, even for the most visionary enterprises."
Perspective B
Qualitative
Moat & Safety Margin
Moat & Safety Margin
Economic MoatLaunch + Starlink ✓
Margin of SafetyNegative (−37%)
Business PredictabilityxAI unpredictable
Earnings StabilityxAI offsets Starlink
IPO Buyer's PositionSeller sets timing
"Wonderful company, terrible price." — Any asset with a negative margin of safety is not a candidate for purchase at current levels.
Multi-Angle Cross-Validation Summary
Value Analysis🔴 AVOID+55% above intrinsic value estimate
Flow & Momentum🟡 MIXED4% float + MSCI inclusion = short-term pressure ↑
Macro / Rates🟡 HEADWIND10Y at 4.7% — long-duration growth stocks at risk
Composite Signal⚪ HOLDNo chasing at $161 — wait for price convergence
04 Price Targets & Strategy by Time Horizon
Short-Term
1–4 Weeks
1–4 Weeks
Flow / Supply Game · Valuation Irrelevant
$140 – $190
MSCI index inclusion demand (D+1) collides with profit-taking pressure. With only 4% float, directional prediction is unreliable — pure momentum trading territory. If entering: strictly small position sizing only.
Stop-Loss: Break below $142 (below Day 1 open of $150) → immediate exit
Mid-Term
1–3 Months
1–3 Months
Price Discovery Phase · Pre–First Earnings
$120 – $200
IPO euphoria cooling → IPO price re-test is statistically common. 1st tranche entry: $135 (IPO price) or below. Key anchor: November 2026 — first public earnings release will set directional conviction.
2nd Tranche: $120–125 zone | Earnings Miss: Full position review
Long-Term
6+ Months
6+ Months
Value Convergence · Around Lock-Up Expiry
$100 – $220
~$100 zone: Convergence to DCF intrinsic value → begin meaningful accumulation. Lock-up expiry (~December 2026 est.) may trigger forced selling → potentially the best buying opportunity.
Long-term upside $190–220: Only if Starlink subscriber growth sustains and xAI moves toward breakeven.
Long-term upside $190–220: Only if Starlink subscriber growth sustains and xAI moves toward breakeven.
3-Tranche Plan: $135 → $120 → $100 (equal allocation per tranche)
05 Risk Assessment
Estimated Max Drawdown: −35 to −45% · IPO price → $95–105 convergence scenario
⚖️
HIGH
Valuation Gravity
Current price assumes flawless execution on every dimension. Historical pattern: IPO pops on Day 1, then corrects sharply as lock-ups expire and momentum traders exit. Reversal scenario: AI bubble correction → SPCX re-rated as "AI loss-maker" rather than "space company."
🔥
HIGH
xAI Cash Burn (~−$6.4B/yr)
Intensifying AI competition could widen losses → entire Starlink profit could be consumed. Failure to differentiate from OpenAI / Google in a crowded LLM market is a real risk.
🔓
HIGH
Lock-Up Expiry (~December 2026 est.)
Float expands from 4% → mass supply event could trigger −20 to −30% drop. Exact lock-up period requires verification against S-1 filing (current figure is estimated).
📉
MED
Interest Rate Sensitivity
US 10Y at 4.69% — ultra-long duration growth stocks are extremely sensitive to discount rate changes. Most of SpaceX's projected earnings lie 5–10 years out. Any further rate rises compress valuation multiples significantly.
📊
MED
4% Float → Extreme Bi-Directional Volatility
Day 1 intraday swing alone was 18% ($149 → $176). Minimal float creates violent moves in both directions — entering without strict risk management is speculative.
👤
MED
Key-Man Risk
Heavy Elon Musk dependency — any controversy, political issue, or personal event instantly impacts multiple compression. Market has already learned this pattern from Tesla and Twitter/X episodes.
06 Investment Thesis Summary
①
Core Thesis
SpaceX's moat in launch and Starlink is genuinely defensible. However, the current price carries a +55% premium above intrinsic value. The bull case only becomes actionable when the price converges toward that value.
②
Key Metrics
Intrinsic value $95–103 vs current price $161 · Consensus target $139 · Starlink EBITDA margin 63% · xAI operating loss −$6.36B
③
Key Catalysts
June 13 — MSCI Inclusion (short-term demand boost) → November 2026 — First Public Earnings (sets directional conviction) → December 2026 — Lock-Up Expiry (potential best buying opportunity)
④
Core Risks
xAI cash burn continuation · Lock-up expiry supply shock · 4% float extreme volatility · US 10Y at 4.7% discount rate pressure · Key-man risk
⑤
Exit Triggers
For short-term trades: Close below $142 → immediate exit
For long-term holdings: Starlink subscriber growth <10% QoQ sustained, or xAI operating loss widens for 2+ consecutive quarters → thesis invalidated → full exit
For long-term holdings: Starlink subscriber growth <10% QoQ sustained, or xAI operating loss widens for 2+ consecutive quarters → thesis invalidated → full exit
HOLD — Staged Entry Plan
Two independent valuation frameworks reach the same rare conclusion.
"Extraordinary company. Not at this price."
The real inflection points are November's first earnings release and December's lock-up expiry. Chasing the stock at $161 is not warranted. Waiting for price convergence toward intrinsic value is the rational strategy.
"Extraordinary company. Not at this price."
The real inflection points are November's first earnings release and December's lock-up expiry. Chasing the stock at $161 is not warranted. Waiting for price convergence toward intrinsic value is the rational strategy.
Enter now at $161NOT RECOMMENDED — +55% above intrinsic value
1st Entry Zone$130–135 (IPO price level)
2nd Entry Zone$115–120
3rd / Core Accumulation$95–105 (intrinsic value convergence)
Long-Term Upside Target$190–220 (xAI breakeven scenario)
Estimated Max Drawdown Risk−35 to −45% downside possible
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